Quantum stocks without illusions
Lesson 22 of 23 in the course “Quantum”. Free, with animations and a quiz.
Who’s who on the market
Important up front: this is a study guide, not investment advice. The market has two kinds of quantum stories. Pure-play companies, where almost the whole business is quantum: IonQ (ions), Rigetti (superconductors), D-Wave (quantum annealing, special machines for optimisation problems, not the universal computers from this course). And giants: Alphabet (Google), IBM, Microsoft, Honeywell (the majority owner of Quantinuum). For giants quantum is a small slice, so their stock moves on other news. For pure plays it’s the opposite: any quantum news moves the price.
Revenue and losses
Let’s look at the numbers from the 2024 annual reports. IonQ’s revenue was about $43 million, Rigetti’s $10.8 million, D-Wave’s $8.8 million. Meanwhile Rigetti posted a $201 million loss that year, and all three were in the red. Yet the market valued such companies in the billions. For example, in early 2026 Zacks analysts calculated D-Wave’s price at 208 times expected annual revenue, against an industry average of about 4. In other words, buyers are paying for a future that hasn’t arrived yet.
One sentence, minus 40%
A real example of how an expectations-driven market works. On 8 January 2025, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang said that 15 years to truly useful quantum computers would probably be on the early side. In a single day IonQ fell 36%, Rigetti 41% and D-Wave 40%. The companies didn’t lose a single customer; only the mood changed. In March 2025 Huang admitted he’d been wrong, but that was no comfort to those who had panic-sold. Takeaway: when a price rests on a distant future, one sentence can crash it or send it flying.
Dilution
Where does a loss-making company get money for salaries and labs? Often it issues new shares and sells them to investors. For the company that’s a normal way to survive, but for you as a shareholder it means your slice of the pie gets smaller: there were four slices and one was yours, now there are eight and yours is still one. So in quantum companies’ reports, look not only at revenue but also at how much cash they hold and how many years it will last without issuing more shares.
Quantum scams
Where there’s hype, there are scammers. The best-known scheme is the “Quantum AI” ad: supposedly a trading robot on a quantum computer that doubles your deposit. Usually it has a faked celebrity video, a “few spots left” timer and a request for a “small” starting deposit. Financial regulators in several countries have warned about such schemes. Remember the simple truth: real quantum computers today solve science problems and don’t trade for you. Any promise of guaranteed profit is a sign of fraud, quantum or not.
Five questions before buying
If you do decide to dig into quantum stocks, here’s a checklist instead of emotions. One: what technology the company uses and whether it has working machines that customers actually use. Two: where revenue comes from (cloud access, system sales or government contracts) and whether it’s growing. Three: how many years the cash lasts without issuing new shares. Four: what the company promised on its roadmap a year or two ago and what it actually delivered. And five, the most important: are you ready to lose this money entirely? If not, the amount is too big.
Check yourself
- Why did one sentence from Huang knock quantum stocks down 36–41% in a day?
Correct answer: The price rested on expectations of a distant future, not current profit. The business didn’t change; expectations did. With no profit, the price is a bet on the future, and words can easily swing it. - A company has $10M revenue and a $200M loss. What does that usually mean for shareholders?
Correct answer: It runs on investors’ money and will likely issue new shares. Covering losses takes outside money. A common route is issuing new shares, which dilutes your stake. - An ad: “Quantum AI: a quantum-computer robot doubles your deposit, few spots left.” What is it?
Correct answer: A scam: guaranteed profit doesn’t exist. Urgency, a “celebrity” in the ad and a promise to double your money are classic scam signs. Quantum computers don’t trade for people.
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