The trader’s head
Lesson 13 of 16 in the course “Futures from Zero”. Free, with animations and a quiz.
The truth nobody posts
Researchers in Brazil studied every individual who traded mini index futures from 2013 to 2015. Of those who kept going for over 300 days, 97% lost money. Only 1.1% earned more than the minimum wage. And in Europe, according to ESMA, 74% to 89% of retail CFD accounts lose. That’s not a reason to be scared. It’s a reason not to trust screenshots and to practise for a long time first.
Three traps
Most money is lost not to bad analysis but to emotions. FOMO, the fear of missing out: the price flew, everyone posts profits, and your hand hits “buy” at the very top. Revenge: after a loss you want it back now and open a bigger trade. Overconfidence: after three good trades the stop feels unnecessary. Knowing these traps by sight is already half the defence.
Safety fuses
A fuse box has fuses so one fault doesn’t burn down the whole house. Set the same for yourself. Daily limit: down 3% in a day, no trades until tomorrow. Three losses in a row: a break of at least an hour. Don’t trade tired, angry or after a sleepless night. And above all: rules are written in advance with a calm head, not made up in the moment.
Simulator first, money later
Pilots fly hundreds of hours in simulators before getting into a real plane. A trader needs the same. The plan: 20–30 trades in the practice terminal by your own rules. If the journal shows the rules work, you can move to a real platform with a small amount you can afford to lose. And you can always come back to the simulator to test a new strategy or refresh what you know.
Check yourself
- What did the study of Brazilian mini-futures traders show?
Correct answer: 97% of persistent traders lost money. Of those who traded over 300 days, 97% were in the red and only 1.1% earned more than the minimum wage. - Nika lost on a trade and right away wants a new one twice as big. What’s this trap?
Correct answer: Revenge trading. The urge to win it back right away is a top reason for blown accounts. What’s needed is a pause, not a new trade. - When does it make sense to move from practice to real money?
Correct answer: After 20–30 rule-based trades, once the journal confirms they work. One trade is luck. A series of 20–30 rule-based trades says something about the strategy. And start with an amount you can afford to lose.