The availability trap
Lesson 7 of 31 in the course “Brain Hacks”. Free, with animations and a quiz.
Common means easy to recall?
Answer fast: what happens more often, plane crashes or car crashes? Almost everyone knows the answer, yet after a week of news about a plane crash, flying feels scarier. Autopilot judges how often something happens by how easily examples come to mind. It’s called the availability heuristic. It usually works OK: common things really are easy to recall. But vivid, recent and talked-about things are easy to recall too, even when they’re rare.
Experiment: 6 or 12 examples
Psychologists asked some people to recall 6 times they acted assertively, and others to recall 12. Then everyone rated how assertive they are. You’d think those who recalled 12 would see themselves as more assertive. The opposite happened. The first examples come easily, but the last few of twelve are a struggle. That struggle is what the brain notes: “if it’s this hard to recall, I guess I’m not that assertive.” Ease beats quantity.
The news draws its own risk map
In a well-known 1970s survey, Americans were asked what causes more deaths. Back then, strokes killed almost twice as many people as all accidents combined. Yet 80% of respondents thought accidents were the bigger danger. The reason is simple: crashes, fires and disasters are always in the news, with vivid images. Strokes are quiet; nobody films stories about them. The media aren’t lying, but they show the unusual, and the risk map in your head gets warped.
Why everyone in a group “did more”
Spouses were asked separately what share of the housework each of them does. Add up a couple’s answers and the total almost always came out above 100%. Nobody’s lying: you remember your own work in detail because you did it, while you only see glimpses of other people’s. Same in school projects. Danya is sure he did nearly half the presentation, but so do Liza, Timur and Nika. Total: 160%. Before getting annoyed, remember that others’ contributions are simply less visible to you.
The feed is full of wins
Danya scrolls his feed: one friend made +340%, another hit a “5x”, a third bought a new phone with the profits. Autopilot’s conclusion: “everyone’s making money on crypto”. But that’s the availability trap. People who win talk about it. People who lost 60% or everything stay quiet, and there are simply no examples of them in your memory. The brain counts only what it saw, and what it saw were filtered stories. The question to ask: “How many people tried and lost?”
We fear the vivid and lose on the boring
When a big exchange hack hits the news, Danya is scared of crypto altogether for a couple of weeks. It’s a loud, rare event, and it fills his memory. Meanwhile phishing links, fake “support” accounts and swapped wallet addresses happen every day, quietly, with no headlines. That’s where people lose money more often. Availability makes you prepare for drama and miss the routine danger. The protection is boring habits: check the site address, don’t click links from DMs.
Hack: “how often, really?”
When you catch yourself thinking “this happens all the time” or “everyone does it”, stop and ask: “How often does it really happen? Where are my examples from?” If they’re from the news or your feed, they’re filtered stories. Look for numbers: statistics, reports, studies. Even a rough estimate beats a feeling. And remember the reverse trick from the 12-examples study: if you want to believe in yourself, recall three of your wins, not twelve.
Try it: records instead of memory
Pick one “always” or “never” about yourself or someone close. For example, “I never find time to study” or “my sister is always late”. For a week, just note in your phone what actually happened. Danya tested “my sister is always late”: out of 7 meetups she was late twice. The vivid late ones stuck; the five ordinary ones didn’t. Records beat availability because they count everything, not just what stuck in your memory.
Check yourself
- People who recalled 12 assertive acts rated themselves less assertive than those who recalled 6. Why?
Correct answer: The last examples were hard to recall, and that feeling won. Right. The brain judges ease, not quantity: “if it’s this hard to recall, I guess I’m not that assertive.” - In that 1970s survey: what killed more people in the US?
Correct answer: Strokes, almost twice as many. Yes. Strokes then killed almost twice as many, but 80% of respondents thought the opposite because accidents are shown in the news more. - Four people rated their share of a project: 45%, 40%, 35% and 40%. Why does it add up to 160%?
Correct answer: Everyone remembers their own work better than others’. Right. You saw your own contribution in full and others’ in glimpses. So yours is easier to recall and feels bigger. Nobody’s lying. - Danya’s feed is all +300% stories. He decides: “Everyone makes money on crypto.” What’s wrong?
Correct answer: Losers stay quiet; he only sees filtered stories. Right. Available examples are the ones people talked about. Those who lost don’t post, so they’re not in your memory. You need numbers, not the feed.