How much will circulating supply grow?

By 10%. 30M / 300M = 0.1, so +10% new tokens in a single day. That is noticeable: for price to hold, the market has to absorb a lot of selling. Always work out the share of circulating supply, not the dollar amount.

Where is the cliff and why does it matter?

The first: a big chunk on one day pressures price. A cliff is a pause and then a big chunk at once. With the first project, 25% of team tokens can hit the market on a single day after a year, and that day is worth circling on the calendar. The second project's linear vesting creates steady, quiet pressure.

No: it is a common reaction, not a rule. Price often weakens in advance, but tokens can go into staking, a fund can hold, and the expected selling may already be priced in. An unlock is context for analysis, not a signal to short. Check the share of circulating supply, recipients' cost basis and on-chain.

What makes sense to check next?

On-chain: are the fund's tokens heading to exchanges (Arkham, Whale Alert). The calendar says when tokens become free, and a 20x profit (1 / 0.05) gives a motive to sell. But what the fund actually does shows up on-chain: if tokens head to exchanges after the unlock, selling pressure is more likely. If they stay in the wallet or go to staking, it is a different story.

Token unlocks

Lesson 10 of 12 in the course “Analytics”. Free, with animations and a quiz.

Unlocks: what and for whom

A token is a project's coin. Many projects don't hand out all their tokens at once: most are locked and released on a schedule, that's vesting. An unlock is the day the next batch becomes free and can be sold. Example from the picture: team 20%, investors 18%, ecosystem fund 35%, community 27% (airdrops, meaning free giveaways, and rewards). Each share has its own schedule.

How many tokens are on the market

To judge how big an unlock is, you need to know the supply, meaning how many tokens exist. Example from the picture: 1B max, 800M already issued, but only 100M trade freely. Those 100M are the circulating supply. The rest is locked. Every unlock moves part of the locked tokens into circulation. We'll go deeper in the next lesson.

Cliff vs linear vesting

Cliff: a long pause, then a big batch at once. Linear vesting: a little every month. Example from the picture: a 48-month team vesting. Zero for the first 12 months, then 25% at once (that's the cliff). The other 75% comes out in equal parts until month 48: 75% / 36 months ≈ 2% a month. A cliff creates one visible day on the calendar, linear creates steady quiet pressure on the price.

Count in %, not dollars

Example from the picture: two coins each unlock 50M tokens. Coin A has 500M in circulation: 50 / 500 = +10% new tokens in a day, that's a lot. Coin B has 5B in circulation: 50 / 5,000 = just +1%. A headline like "$100M unlock" sounds scary, but the share of circulating supply is what matters. So does trading volume: how much of the coin is bought and sold per day. The higher it is, the easier the market absorbs selling.

What the holders paid

Cost basis is the price someone paid for their tokens. Example from the picture: the seed investor (the earliest round) bought at $0.05, the private round at $0.20, and the token now trades at $1. That's 20x (1 / 0.05) and 5x (1 / 0.20). Even if the price halves, seed is still up 10x. For the team and airdrop recipients the cost is close to zero. The bigger the profit, the easier it is to sell.

Typical reaction: not a rule

Price often weakens in the days before a big unlock, for example before a cliff day: the market prices in the new supply ahead of time. But it's not a law. Tokens may go into staking, meaning they get locked up to earn rewards. A fund may hold. And the expected selling may already be in the price. Bottom line: an unlock is context for analysis, not a signal to short (bet on a drop).

Where to check unlocks

Three services keep unlock calendars. Token Unlocks: upcoming unlocks, check the date and the number of tokens. CryptoRank: unlocks and the vesting schedule for every token. Dropstab: unlocks next to data on funding rounds. Work out the share yourself: unlock / circulating supply × 100%. Example: 50M / 500M × 100% = 10%.

Check on-chain: checklist

On-chain: data straight from the blockchain, where every transfer is visible. Arkham shows whose wallet it is and where the coins went. Whale Alert sends big transfers. Flows to and from exchanges show up on any on-chain panel. A transfer to an exchange is a reason to look closer, not a confirmed sale. Checklist: date, % of circulating supply, cost basis, on-chain.

Check yourself

How much will circulating supply grow?
Correct answer: By 10%. 30M / 300M = 0.1, so +10% new tokens in a single day. That is noticeable: for price to hold, the market has to absorb a lot of selling. Always work out the share of circulating supply, not the dollar amount.
Where is the cliff and why does it matter?
Correct answer: The first: a big chunk on one day pressures price. A cliff is a pause and then a big chunk at once. With the first project, 25% of team tokens can hit the market on a single day after a year, and that day is worth circling on the calendar. The second project's linear vesting creates steady, quiet pressure.
Is that rule true?
Correct answer: No: it is a common reaction, not a rule. Price often weakens in advance, but tokens can go into staking, a fund can hold, and the expected selling may already be priced in. An unlock is context for analysis, not a signal to short. Check the share of circulating supply, recipients' cost basis and on-chain.
What makes sense to check next?
Correct answer: On-chain: are the fund's tokens heading to exchanges (Arkham, Whale Alert). The calendar says when tokens become free, and a 20x profit (1 / 0.05) gives a motive to sell. But what the fund actually does shows up on-chain: if tokens head to exchanges after the unlock, selling pressure is more likely. If they stay in the wallet or go to staking, it is a different story.

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